20250612 - AI world & future...

I am not an optimistic person. I am not very pessimistic either. I would consider myself as a pragmatist with a slight bent towards pessimism... that trait has helped me very much throughout my life/ career to foresee risks & issues more than most others and be prepared for it...

The following is guided by that same basic characteristic of mine... 

I don't know what % of people in the world are aware of the emergence of AI, its abilities, its consequences , etc. My take is it is a very miniscule %. Apart from awareness, nobody in that miniscule % will know what hit them when it does - because, there will be enormous and very sudden impacts to jobs and livelihoods.

One of the very predictable things that is peddled by the folks building these AI systems is that there is nothing to worry about as we will always have the need for jobs like nurses, plumbers, electricians, etc. High touch and needing human emotions kind of jobs. That's true, AI will definitely not be able to replace these jobs.

However, AI is potent for targeting anything that needed information, logic, reasoning, etc. - everything that we thought had a semblance of Intelligent stuff. And that is the sweetest spot of all "white collar" jobs. So, most of what is/was white collar jobs of yesterday will disappear... Ya ya I know, new types of jobs will be created. No doubt about that. It is the difference in scale though. I have no scientific measure for this feeling but I feel that for 10 traditional white collar jobs eliminated, 1-2 new "new types" of jobs will be created. So, huge joblessness and no money with huge populations.

But AI can't do the "high touch" jobs I mentioned earlier. But hang on, all of those "high touch" jobs are service jobs. Meaning - somebody has to pay for the service. There will certainly be a need. But who will remain able to pay for it? Earlier, mostly, the traditional white collar folks were the ones having the incomes to afford these high touch services. But they can't anymore as they will not have those jobs anymore. So, while there will be many people capable of doing these high-touch services, there will be no opportunities to service anyone - so, no jobs there as well..

This will bring about very huge shifts and huge unrest in society as we know it... and lead to chaos...

There have been many talks about the concept of UBI (Universal Basic Income). I think it is so absolutely flawed that it will never see the light of the day.

I think about >90% of everything we are used to in the world today are "value added" products or "value added"  services.

But with most being unable to afford these value added stuff, It will no longer retain any Value!

Over a period of time, after the full impact on the population in the world, after the unrest, chaos and complete shift in society/ social structures, there will remain a demand or importance for "basic things". 

Basic stuff like "food" , "shelter", "clothing", etc. That kind of stuff. And even in that, very basic kind of stuff. not the glamorous value added stuff in each of these categories..

These things will not happen tomorrow. or next year, or for a decade (I don't know when and how long it'll take, but intuitively, it doesn't feel like many decades away).

So, own a patch of land and grow something on it - cultivate crops/ farm fruits or vegetables/ farm animals for food/ farm fish/ etc...