20260112 - World war...

 In 28-July-1914, Austria-Hungary declared war against Serbia for a reasonably local issue. This event is officially regarded as the start of world war 1.However, there were many other things happening making the world a tinderbox ready to ignite before this.

Geopolitically,
There was escalating alliances & rivalry like - Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) - There was the Triple Entete ( France, Russia, Britain)There was the Balkan crisis (Austria, Hungary, Russia)There was the Moroccan crisis , etc.

Geoeconomically,

• There was the imperial rivalry b/w France & Britain regarding dominance of Asia & Africa and their resources/ riches.
• Rivalry b/w Britain & Germany for naval supremacy for trade leadership.
• Capital driven pressures on society and unrest .
• Hangover from military conflicts,
• Japan's victory over Russia
• Decline of the Ottoman empire affecting central Europe
• Severe arms buildup amidst many of these nations.

World war 2 had different specific instances buy very similar global conditions. So, we can skip the details...

Point is,

• there was no single reason but several conditions giving way to the trigger in July 2014.
• Also, nobody in July 2014 knew they were in a world war.
• Especially as there was no mobile/internet/ tv/ etc. All messaging was controlled by radio & print fairly tightly and centrally.
• It was much much later that different parts of the world figured out they were in a "world war"
• world war 1 lasted from July 1914 to November 1918.
• Most nations were tired, economically drained, with casualties in the hundreds of thousands everywhere.
• Basically, they stopped after hollowing themselves out and imploding.

Currently,

• Do we have alliances and groupings and rivalry? Yes, several of them NATO, G7, G20, BRICS+, AUKUS, QUAD, etc.. i'll run out of acronyms [check]
• Do we have economies competing for superiority? Yes, US, China, Asia, etc  [check]
• Do we have social unrest because of capitalistic economic pressures? yes - several places rich-poor divide, unemploymeny, etc [check]
• Do we have many regional conflicts? Yes - Ukraine-Russia, Israel(US)-Iran, Ind-Pak, several in Africa, US-Colombia, potentially US-Greenland (NATO) [check]
• Do we have a severe military buildup? Yes of course. everyone is arming up to their teeth [check]

On top of this

• Severe resource competition, for oil, for gas, for minerals , even for water.
• We have severe cyber conflicts and attacks everywhere
• Severe information wars (information, disinformation, misinformation, etc)
• Severe technological competition (AI, Robotics, Bioengineering, Quantum, etc)
• Severe capital competition (many companies are bigger than many nations and operate across borders)
• Severe social unrest because of unchecked illegal immigration many places, resentment to races & religions, population imbalances & fertility rates.- Etc etc,

Point being,

• Every indicator tells me the conditions are very ripe for a "world war"
• In fact, I think we are in "world war 3.0" already and haven't realised it yet collectively.
• We are all so tightly coupled economically, information wise, trade wise etc, no one dares to say it aloud and recognise it.
• Remember, previous world wars, we only know what was the trigger looking back and not when in the middle of it.
• Nobody has said a world war has these exact qualities and has to be this many years.
• This one might go on for a decade or more before everyone gets tired, hollows themselves out, implodes and stops.

This one could have started in 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine, or in 2023 when Gaza-Israel conflicts started, or in 2025 when US(Israel) attacked Iran, or in 2026 when US seized Venezuela. We dont know which one it is or is yet to happen, but the conditions are ripe.

I could be gravely wrong with this assessment, I hope I am wrong, I will be very glad if I am wrong, but I certainly feel we are already in " World war 3.0"
How will it end?
I hope this comes from economic & other pressures, & not from military action involving bombs (especially the nuclear kind)...