20230801 : risk & probably

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I was seeing my LIC policy yesterday for something.

It is a paltry sum policy which might help 2 months expenses at the most today. I had got it done in 2000 only for the purposes of tax saving (india tax provides for it). This was as advised by some accountant as we got into the taxable bracket then.

I was thinking would it make sense to take another one. Then I realised my age and no income and most important thing - my condition. No insurance company in their senses will touch my case/ application with a barge pole...

Their actuaries will have a risk weighted framework will never allow it to pass through.

Come to think of it, everyone probably has an exact same chance to kick the bucket tomorrow. However they have a sophisticated framework to evaluate everyone's life, identify risk elements, assign a probability for each of them and vomit out a score based on which they can charge a premium for the policy.

So I got thinking further on this and my general risk elements and it's probability of occurring.

1. I call this the risk of an accident: frankly there is a higher risk of having an accident outside the house. If you drive/ ride, there is a risk of crashing. If you take any public transport, there is still a risk which can be figured out. Even if you are just walking on the road, there is a risk we might come under a bus.
However, I spend 24 h indoors, roughly 20h on the bed and 4h on the wheelchair. I'd say the probability in negligible.

One can also have an accident inside the house - I know someone who slipped in the bathroom and their life was pretty much over. Turns out, I haven't gone to the bathroom either for 4+ years . Neither do I handle electric or dangerous equipment etc. The probability again is almost nil. I do tey to walk when something can happen - but I am tied to a walking contraption with 2 nurses close to my heels watching me. Again, hardly a probably... 

2. Next I' d put under sudden health incident like a heart attack or stroke: out of the many things stress , deposits in arteries stand out. Stress - i admit I had for many months after my stroke. But I can confidently say it is almost zero now. Blocked arteries - there is enough evidence now that the deposits are caused by sugar, something I have not had since 4+ years.. stroke also happens because of clotting of blood - that I don't have to worry. I have been on blood thinners for 4+ years now. Even if I get a very small nick during shaving, it takes hours to stop bleeding!

3. Next is all chronic ailments - like BP, diabetes, etc. Most of them come back to stress , sugar consumption, unhealthy eating, unhealthy sleep etc. Basically everything they usually say "lifestyle reasons". I have already mentioned about my stress and sugar intake. I sleep for 8 hrs every night. I have probably the most controlled diet in my entire life, forget overeating, I don't even have to encounter the problem of eating, I can't drink I can't smoke etc etc. 

You get the drift...

Basically, when I apply , I will have almost zero probability of usual risks materialising .

However, I know I will not be eligible for any existing product.

I think I will have no problem for a very long time to come though with no insurance. 

What is your age btw? 
How is your stress levels? 
how is your diet? 
How is your sleep? 
How is your lifestyle? 
Do you have sufficient insurance coverage? 🙂.... 


Comments

  1. Alok Sharma1/8/23 21:59

    Super!!! Mind boggling sir. I was a risk analyst in Crisil. But how you evaluate risk is so unique and real. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sreekanth8/8/23 17:53

      Thank you Alok. good hearing from you.

      Delete

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